Home News Mombasa voters may boycott polls due to ‘Sonko’ factor-Survey

Mombasa voters may boycott polls due to ‘Sonko’ factor-Survey

[Former Nairobi Governor Mike Mbuvi Sonko. Photo/Courtesy/July, 28, 2022].

The decision by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) to bar former Nairobi governor Mike Mbuvi Sonko from contesting in Mombasa will lead to huge voter apathy in Mombasa, a recent opinion poll has shown.

According to the political researchers, Sonko commandeered a great number of electorates majority being the youth and people living in informal settlement.

The poll also indicated the former Nairobi governor had a good backing from the Kamba Community, which is the second largest voting bloc in Mombasa County.

The poll carried out by Research and Governance Professional Organisation and released 12 days to the General election has revealed that most Mombasa residents are bitter about the IEBC’s decision to bar Sonko from contesting.

The research also showed that the majority of Sonko’s supporters are also going to vote for former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar in rebellion against the current administration of Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho.

The five-day research targeted 6,000 respondents from six Mombasa constituencies, but only 4,920 respondents were interviewed representing an 82 percent response rate with a +/- 1 percent margin of error.


The Research and Governance Professional Organisation has placed Omar (UDA) at the top with 51.8 percent, Abdulswamad Nassir (ODM) at 32.6 percent, and Dr William Kingi (PAA) at 4.2 percent.

Some 11.4 percent of the total 4,920 respondents said they were still undecided.

George Dzombo, the lead researcher with the organisation, said most of Sonko’s supporters said they will vote for Omar.

[Mombasa Gubernatorial aspirant Abdulswamad Shariff Nassir (Left) with his close opponent Hassan Omar Hassan. Photo/courtesy].

Dzombo said the majority of respondents opined that Nassir is Joho’s project.

“Majority said Abdulswamad Nassir lacks capacity without Joho,” said Dzombo.

However, Nassir has on many occasions said he is the ‘people’s project’, denying the reports that he is being fronted by the current Governor Ali Hassan Joho.

A week ago, Infotrak Research Kenya placed ODM’s Abdulswamad Nassir at 50 percent, whereas Sonko came in second at 22 percent, Omar third at 9 percent, Dr William Kingi of Pamoja African Alliance (PAA) trailing at only 1 percent.


However, Dzombo said their research showed that Omar will lead in five out of the six counties of Mombasa, Changamwe, Kisauni, Nyali, Jomvu, and Kisauni.

In Changamwe, Dzombo said, the majority of the voters are from the Kamba community, which is Sonko’s ethnic background.

He said in Kisauni, Omar will lead because of two factors; his choice of running mate, Selina Maitha, and because of the current Kisauni MP Ali Mbogo.

He said Omar has also eaten a huge chunk of supporters of Mombasa businessman Suleiman Shahbal, who stepped down in favour of Nassir.

“Selina, who was Shahbal’s running mate, crossed over to UDA and became Omar’s running mate. She moved to that camp with some of Shahbal’s votes,” he said.

In Nyali, Dzombo said Omar will lead because of the sustained campaign by the current MP Ali Mbogo, who is also in UDA.

[Research and Guidance Professional Organisation lead researcher George Dzombo. Photo/Ahmed Omar/July, 28, 2022].

In Jomvu and Likoni, stiff competition will be witnessed between the two candidates, but Omar will lead with a small margin of not more than five percent, said Dzombo.

Nassir will command a lead in Mvita, the factor being he is the area Member of Parliament.