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Urban casual workers hardest hit by Coronavirus economic impact-study

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[Mombasa County volunteers during relief food distribution by Mombasa County government. Photo/courtesy/MCG].

Households which depend on casual work especially in big cities are by far the hardest hit by crises of food and income caused by the Coronavirus.

1 out of 3 of these households (34%) have seen the main breadwinner lose their source of income, compared to one out of four Kenyan households overall (26%).

More than half of these households have not found new sources of income.

In terms of food security, 8 out of 10 households (80%) that rely on casual work reporting to hold food stocks of a week or less at home, compared to 6 out of 10 of the population overall (64%).

In the past three months, 4 out of 10 casual workers (43%) did not eat for a whole day due to lack of money or other resources, compared to 3 out of 10 of citizens in general (32%).

These findings were released by Twaweza in two research briefs titled Living with Coronavirus? Kenyan citizens’ opinions and experiences on the economic effects of Covid-19 based on data from Sauti za Wananchi, Africa’s first nationally representative high-frequency mobile phone survey.

The panel was established through random sampling from a database of contacts from previous surveys to establish a new representative panel of the country’s population.

Data were collected from 3,000 respondents in the first round of the special Sauti za Wananchi panel conducted between 17 and 29 August, 2020.

Although casual workers face particularly difficult conditions, all Kenyans are struggling with securing food and income. Fewer Kenyans now say their income is sufficient to meet their household needs: 1 out of 4 citizens (28%) report having enough income compared to 1 out of 3 in 2018 and 2017.

Perhaps most starkly, 4 out of 10 citizens (39%) say they would spend a hypothetical KES 10,000 gift from government on food.

In terms of food, 8 out of 10 Kenyans (77%) report increases in the price of food and other necessities, compared to January of this year. And 2 out of 3 households (64%) say they have food that would last a week or less at home. Compared to June 2020, more households (21% compared to 15%) report having no food at home. The situation is particularly bad in Nairobi where the share of households with no food at home has almost doubled (17% to 31%) in 2020.

Overall, half of households (52%) report that their current food situation is worse or much worse than in the previous month. Along a range of indicators of food stress, 2020 is comparable to 2016, a year of bad harvest.

75% of people in 2020 and 2016 worried about running out of food.

60% had in 2020 and 65% in 2016 had to skip a meal.

51% in 2020 and 53% in 2016 found their household ran out of food.

[The fact findings in figures. Photo/courtesy/Twaweza].

For many citizens, these tough household circumstances translate into pessimism about the status of the national economy. Overall 8 out of 10 citizens (78%) think the country is heading in the wrong direction, up from 7 out of 10 (71%) in 2018.

Similar proportions think the current state of the economy is bad or very bad (83%) or (much) worse (87%) than 12 months ago.

Findings are similar when citizens are asked about their personal economic circumstances: 1 out of 2 (56%) report these to be bad or very bad and 9 out of 10 (87%) say things are worse than a year ago.

Twaweza Country Lead in Kenya James Ciera, said “As we learn to live with the Coronavirus, we all need to focus on the recovery and reconstruction of our economy. Citizens’ voices reveal Kenyans’ unequal suffering. Many are vulnerable and hungry. But one group are particularly hard hit,  urban casual workers especially concentrated in Nairobi. Their sources of income are most insecure and they are least well placed to adapt their work to the new context. However, those with formal jobs are more likely to work remotely and those who can still farm, are slightly better off.”